What would be the odds of this happening? There is a 1/8192 chance of finding a shiny pokemon. So what are the odds of finding 2 within 30 attempts/tries? I wouldn’t know how to calculate that so if anyone could do that, because I am just curious.
✅ Answers
? Best Answer
The odds of finding 1 Shiny Pokémon in the wild is 1/8192.
The number of attempts made here is 30.
So n = 30.
Probability of finding a shiny Pokémon is 1/8192.
So p = 1/8192
Probablity of not finding a shiny Pokémon is 8191/8192.
So q = 8191/8192
The probability of finding 2 shiny Pokémon in 30 attempts is given by
P(X=2)
= 30C2 x p^2 x q^(30-2)
= 435 x (1/8192)^2 x (8191/8192)^28
= 6.45 x 10^-6
There’s a 6.45 in 1 million chance of getting 2 shinies in 30 attempts.
I myself have seen just 1 shiny Pokémon in the wild after playing about 150 hours on Pokémon FireRed.
(1/8192)^2(8191/8192)^28
In other words, astronomical.